Forecasting Vietnamese market’s petroleum products demand during 2017 - 2025 using econometric model
Abstract
Since the commencement of its operation, Dung Quat refinery has been producing approximately 6.5 million tons of petroleum products per year and meeting around 30% of domestic demand. The shortfall is compensated with imports from countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and China. However, since late 2014, the crude oil and petroleum product markets have been volatile, thus accurate forecast of demand will be an important reference for oil and petroleum product importers in designing distribution and stockpiling plans to improve production and business efficiency and contribute to ensuring the stability of the economy. The authors have developed a multivariate regression model based on time series data using ordinary least squares (OLS) method to evaluate the influence of different factors on the Vietnamese market’s petroleum products demand on the basis of the statistics of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Estimates from the research model will be used to forecast demands for Vietnam during the 2016 - 2025 period.
References
2. Các nguồn dữ liệu khác từ Ngân hàng Thế giới, Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế, Tổng cục Thống kê Việt Nam.
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