The crude oil market in 2019 and outlook for 2020

  • Doan Tien Quyet
  • Cao Thi Hoai Phuong
  • Nguyen Thu Ha
Keywords: Crude oil price, petroleum product price, crude oil supply/demand, forecast, IMO 2020

Abstract

In 2020, the Brent crude oil price is forecasted to average USD 62/barrel. Tightening oil supply is expected as OPEC’s and Russia’s commitment to production cuts will be extended until the end of next year. The oil products market will be much more volatile as the new sulphur cap of marine fuels will impact the shift of crude oil trade flows. In 2020, around 2.7 million barrels per day of high sulphur fuel oil  (FO) will be replaced with low sulphur fuel; there will be increases in the marine gas oil (MGO) demand and very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) as a replacement for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). LNG used for shipping is expected to increase by 70% between 2019 - 2020.

References

1. EIA. Short-term energy outlook. 2019.
2. Wood Mackenzie. Macro oils short-term outlook. 2019.
3. Wood Mackenzie. Macro oils long-term outlook. 2019.
4. Wood Mackenzie. Asia product markets short-term outlook. 2019.
Published
2020-01-24
How to Cite
Doan Tien Quyet, Cao Thi Hoai Phuong, & Nguyen Thu Ha. (2020). The crude oil market in 2019 and outlook for 2020. Petrovietnam Journal, 1, 49 - 57. https://doi.org/10.25073/petrovietnam journal.v1i0.38
Section
Articles